Afternoon Baseball

ESPN.com -- Bagwell's injury

Looking at what Jeff Bagwell has done -- his numbers, impact on the Astros and the game -- doesn't automatically answer this question. He's played in an era inundated with first basemen (Frank Thomas, Carlos Delgado, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmiero, Fred McGriff, Todd Helton, Albert Pujols, Jason Giambi, Jim Thome, and probably a couple I've forgotten) who will all merit consideration some day. Not all can get in.

Oddly enough, for a player who may have to retire due to injury, he was one of the most durable athletes of his time. Four times he played every single game, and played at least 156 games on 10 occasions.

Bagwell has a batting title and an RBI title. No HR title, but he was top 10 in his league seven times without any steroid allegations. He was Rookie of the Year and an MVP. He's got a career line of .297/.408/.540. The latter two stats rank 11th and 18th among active players, and 44th and 35th all-time. He's also in the top 40 ever in RBI, HR, OPS, OPS+, BB, extra-base hits. He's got 202 stolen bases, twice being a 30-30 man.
No one since Lou Gehrig (167 runs in 1936) has scored as many as 152 runs in a season except for Bagwell in 2000. Bagwell's 295 runs in a two-year span are the most since Gehrig's 305 in 1936 and 1937.

The negatives? "Only" 449 homers, although he only had 7797 at-bats. A sub-.300 batting average, which is a stupid negative, but true. His OPS+ dropped every year starting in 2000, although it was as high as 127 in 2003. He was a terrible postseason player -- .226 in 104 at-bats with a mere six extra-base hits; four of those came in a series win against the Braves in 2004. He had 25 strikeouts, 24 hits in postseason play.
While All-Star games are popularity contests and Bagwell was an underrated force, he only made four contests, none after 1999.
He only played 15 seasons, which the stats-focused voters will undoubtedly hold against him.

Does Bagwell deserve to be in the Hall? Probably. But there's a lot left to be determined. He's probably going to have more surgery and could return, although it's doubtful he'll ever be a high-caliber player again. And five or six years from now, we'll have found out what the steroid allegations have done to the votes on some of his peers, and whether "clean" players such as himself can benefit.

For sure, though, Jeff Bagwell is the best player the Astros have ever had and one of the best players of the "offensive" era of 1993 to the present. That's worth a good deal.
Plus, the Red Sox could have had him and gave him up. That makes all his success that much cooler.

Labels: HOF