Afternoon Baseball

My two favorite commenters are absolutely crazy! I'm kidding.

But two things they responded to this post with I can't agree with: 1. That a Wilkerson/Soriano comparision shouldn't be in the same sentence and 2. That Soriano would still be a better fit for the Yanks than A-Rod.

First, Wilkerson/Soriano. Wilkerson's put up better Win Shares than Soriano in 2004 and 2005. I don't know all the math behind that stat, but it seems to be pretty reliable (for instance, it's always a good barometer for how damn good Sheffield is each year).
They are two different types of players. Both strike out a lot, but Wilkerson, a year younger at least, will walk a whole bunch, hit some power, and bat not so great. Soriano's average will be higher with more power, but he won't ever walk.
Wilkerson's power drop-off from 2004 to 2005 is worrisome (32 to 11 HR, .498 slug to .405). However, he switched from Montreal/San Juan to Washington's mammoth RFK. Soriano put up 28 and 36 and .484 and .512 playing half his games at Texas' hitters' paradise.
Their OPSs were .872 and .756 for Wilkerson and .807 and .821 for Soriano. However, Soriano's OPS against the league was actually below average (98) in 2004 and only 110 in 2005. Wilkerson was (admittedly, he plays in the non-DH league) 128 in 2004 and 104 in his terrible 2005 season.

There's actually a very good debate about which player has more productive over the past two years without really getting into ballpark factors. Plus, when you add in fielding and intangibles (Wilkerson: 3 OF positions and 1B; Soriano: barely 2B), Wilkerson only looks better.
Soriano's track record is longer, but he's shown no signs of improvement, and he plays a game predicated on athletic ability alone. As that starts to decline, he will too, very rapidly (a la a much-worse version of Sammy Sosa). Wilkerson's decline, when it comes, shouldn't be as dramatic. He'll still have to prove that 2004's power binge was not a fluke, but he's got a great opportunity to do so in Texas.

Secondly, as for A-Rod vs. Soriano, that's purely a gut feeling and intangibles argument that's really tough to even posit at this point. Besides, I visited this topic in August 2005 (the comment I link to in that post seems to have disappeared, sadly). I'm done with it.