Afternoon Baseball

This question was first raised by astute Bronx Banter writer Cliff Corcoran in the last days of 2004.
Unfortunately for him, 2005 through a monkey-wrench into the expectations that Alex Rodriguez would settle into a post-1999 Derek Jeter with better power. In fact, a real argument could be made that 2005 was his best season. I thought I had a link, but can't find it.

Anyways, one concern with Rodriguez (as it is for Andruw Jones) is that because he started so young (in the majors at 18, first full season at 20), that his "baseball age" is much older than his real age. Also, he was so good so early that he may drop off earlier, or so the theory goes. 2006, so far, is looking like a decline year, or just a slump, depending on the perspective.

To take a look at this, let's look at four of the classic all-around great hitters with legendary power who also got started at age 19 or 20. A quick disclaimer: This is not some genius statistical analysis. I'm sure many can do better, and I hope they do so.

We'll compare A-Rod with Jimmie Foxx, Mickey Mantle, Mel Ott and Ken Griffey Jr. All five led their league in home runs at least four times, all have (or will have) 500+ home runs, and the latter four fell off before they were expected to do so. They were also well-rounded. Mantle and Foxx won Triple Crowns, Ott hit over .300 lifetime and walked more than 1700 times, and Griffey was considered baseball's top all-around player for the better part of a decade. A-Rod has won each piece of the Triple Crown and has led the league 4 times in runs and runs created, and twice in slugging, on top of that.
First, we'll look at their production through their peak (between 29 and 32) in 162-game averages:

For A-Rod, we'll only look at him through age 29, or 2005, when he arguably peaked.
Alex Rodriguez (through age 29) 12 seasons, 10 full, first full year at age 20.
Seasons: 9.83. 193-630; 44 HR; 35 2B; 125 RBI; 127 R. .307/.385/.577. 6 years of OPS+ above career average of 145.
Jimmie Foxx (through age 31) 14 seasons, 12 full, first full year at age 20.
Seasons: 11.32. 196-582; 41 HR; 33 2B; 144 RBI; 131 R. .336/.444/.640. 7 years of OPS+ above career average of 163.
Mickey Mantle (through age 32) 14 seasons, 13 full, first full year at age 19.
Seasons: 11.62. 179-562; 39 HR; 25 2B; 112 RBI; 127 R. .309/.429/.582. 7 years of OPS+ above career average of 172.
Mel Ott (through age 30) 14 seasons, 12 full, first full year at age 19.
Seasons: 11.51 179-569; 32 HR; 31 2B; 120 RBI; 116 R. .315/.420/.558. 7 years of OPS+ above career average of 155.
Ken Griffey Jr. (through age 30) 12 seasons, 11 full, first full year at age 19.
Seasons: 10.37. 182-612; 40 HR; 33 2B; 122 RBI; 112 R. .296/.383/.568. 7 years of OPS+ above career average.

What does this mean? Well, A-Rod is a prolific home-run hitter, and his numbers trend well with all of the above, especially considering he's played fewer years and is younger. The years with OPS+ above career average is mostly to illustrate that, given their careers as a whole, they had "x" amount of above-average years early on. For the latter four after their "peaks," Foxx, Mantle and Griffey never had a year with a OPS+ that matched or bested their career average. Ott did so twice in six full seasons after his peak, even winning a HR title and leading the league in OPS (both in 1942). The other three never led their leagues in anything post-peak.

There are extenuating circumstances, of course. Foxx drank himself out of baseball, and alcohol certainly had its impact on Mantle (as it probably did on Eddie Mathews, the Braves third baseman who dramatically fell off after age 29, but had already made his plaque by then). Griffey has had numerous injuries, but still managed a respectable .277/.363/.532 through 2005. Ott, who had fewer problems with either malady, was also the most consistent.
His post-peak numbers:
(after age 30) 8 seasons, 6 full, last full season at 36
Seasons: 5.35. 152-544; 27 HR; 24 2B; 89 RBI; 99 R; .280/.403/.477
Plus, he managed very steller OPS+ of 137, 150, 165, 133, 171, and 150 against a career 155 average.

So, is this A-Rod's future? Nobody suggests he'll be Dale Murphy. He may well be Hank Aaron or Frank Robinson or Ted Williams.

But what if indeed he has peaked? He can still put up big numbers, as has Jason Giambi, a man who indisputably has declined, yet is the most feared AL hitter this side of Fenway Park. Gary Sheffield dropped off a good bit in 2004 and 2005, yet was a viable MVP candidate in 2004 and has proven his worth with his absence this year.
The adjustment, if this is the case, may be as much ours as it is Alex's.

Labels: A-Rod