Pessimistically, I'd say watch for a Yankee descent below .500. Let's hope the last two games were a fluke, but if not, the season could be sinking with their record.
With the Yankees: I think it's obvious that 95 wins would be the benchmark for getting into the playoffs. While getting 95 and not making wouldn't fly in the city or the media, it would at least reward some better team. Even 90 might get the Yankees in.
What progress are they making toward that goal?
Overall: 35-34, six games back in the wild card (42-29 Detroit/Cleveland).
To win 95 games: 60-33.
So, the Yankees must lose fewer games the rest of the season than they have lost so far. Impossible? No, but damn, not easy. That also means that the weaker of the two AL Central teams goes no better than 52-38, which isn't out of the question. It also means that Oakland can't get hot and play better than 55-35. It's tough to predict Oakland, quite honestly. They don't hit well, but that 3.36 ERA the staff is posting isn't completely illegitimate. Being only eighth in the league in strikeouts signals that ERA might jump a little, but still, they are a good team.
With players: Derek Jeter should get to 2,300 hits (and a bunch more) this year. The other shortstops with 2,300 or more hits include no stiffs (well, one): Dave Concepcion, his successor, Barry Larkin (that's right -- 35 years, two guys, one team), Alan Trammell, Ozzie Smith, Omar Vizquel, the undeserving HOFer Rabbit Maranville, Luis Aparicio, Luke Appling, Cal Ripken Jr. and the man once called the greatest player ever, Honus Wagner.
Alex Rodriguez is heading for 500 home runs. Jimmie Foxx is the current youngest man to reach 500, although he hit only 34 more. The difference between A-Rod and Foxx, besides that one actually takes care of himself, is that when Foxx reached 500, he and Babe Ruth stood alone. A-Rod might be joined by three others just this year (Frank Thomas, Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome), plus Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey Jr. and Barry Bonds are active.
Mariano Rivera won't be getting 500 saves this year. Sorry. Not enough chances, and I don't know if he'd be able to handle that many, frankly.
Andy Pettitte might still get his 200 wins, but boy, it's not going to be easy. He needs 10 wins in say, 15-18 starts. He's only got four in his first 15.
Looking ahead was the happiest I could do today on limited time. Let's see if the team can rebound tonight.
Labels: Yankees
