If we're trying to handicap Roger Clemens for his post-All-Star break start, keep in mind that he hasn't had back-to-back eight-inning outings since 2001. And in Houston, he was shut out the last three times he threw eight innings.
But for the hell of it, let's travel back to 2001. That was his Cy Young year earned on the strength of a 20-1 start (finishing 20-3). On June 7 and 13, Clemens won both starts, giving up zero and three runs in eight innings each with 16 strikeouts combined. His next start was also a win, as he scattered seven hits in seven innings with no earned runs (one unearned) and seven strikeouts.
He then did not complete the seventh inning for eight consecutive starts, although he didn't pitch terribly in that stretch.
In 2005, he pitched eight innings four times. In the four starts just before those outings, he pitched 25.1 innings. In the four starts after throwing eight, that dropped to 23.1. Not a huge difference. However, in three of the four "before" starts (the fourth was sandwiched between two eight-inning games), he gave up zero earned runs. In the four "after" starts, he gave up 11 earned runs.
The longer break, thanks to All-Star Weekend, may help Clemens avoid this pitfall, but don't look for him to get past six for a while, no matter how effective he is in those frames.
Are you going to give out first half awards?
I picked the wrong year to skip the all-star game. I saw the homerun on youtube but I bet it would have been much more special to see it in real time.