Afternoon Baseball

Common-sense ruminations on baseball and culture.


Colorado ditched its mutant-style home-field baseballs a couple of years ago, and now are in the World Series.
21 wins, 22 games. And, despite chasing all year, they are a superior team to Arizona.

Arizona was a smoke and mirrors team all year, and it comes down to the most obvious of observations -- scoring runs. They were outscored overall this year, had more than 10 wins above their Pythagorean projection, and had these type of runs through the season:

Games 53-72: 12-8, 4.35 runs scored per game, 4.55 runs allowed per game
Games 55-74: 11-9, 3.95 RS/G, 4.65 RA/G
Games 92-111: 13-7, 3.95 RS/G, 4.25 RA/G
Games 97-116: 15-5, 4.50 RS/G, 4.55 RA/G
Games 107-126: 13-7 4.85 RS/G, 5.45 RA/G
Games 126-145: 11-9 4.70 RS/G, 5.05 RA/G

Besides seeming odd, it says, at face value, that this team had some pact with a higher power.

Now, the counter-argument is that the D-Backs were exceptional in close games and blown out often. The first part stands up (32-20 in one-run games). At first, it seems getting blown out isn't part of it -- they were a not great, but decent 20-26 in blowouts. But in 116 non-blowout games, they were 24 games over and outscored opponents 472-431. So Arizona wasn't quite a luck-based team, just one severely skewed by blowouts and unable to deliver one themselves.

Meanwhile, the Rockies, much like the 2002 Angels, 2006 Cardinals and (to an extent) the 2004 Red Sox, got hot AND caught teams at bad times.
The Rocks were only 19-19 in one-run games, under .500 on the road and depended largely on blowout wins (29-18).
However, in the playoffs, they've shown more poise, haven't been afraid to take chances with pitchers, and made winning at home easy by winning first on the road.
More to the point, the Rockies, in the 115 non-blowout games, were six games over and outscored opponents by 15. They split one-run games, dominated blowouts and scraped by the rest of the time. When you win road games and have a distinct home-field edge, scraping by will usually be enough.

The D-Backs were vulnerable to the blowout, but lost four games that were fairly close. Bad timing? A team that ran out of luck? Maybe both, but maybe it's just a never-before-seen run of dominance at the right time by the Rockies is going to make everyone look foolish.

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