For not immediately signing the Yankees' offer of three years, $45 million and worse, demanding more. It's possibly more than he deserves, and he's coming off the worst year of his great career. Plus, he's 38.
For three years, we'd expect at least 90 saves, right?
Historically, two men have achieved that from age 38 onward: Hoyt Wilhelm and Dennis Eckersley. Wilhelm pitched more than 1,000 innings, and Eck only hit 84 saves through age 40, and wasn't under a 4.00 ERA any of the three years.
On the plus side, Trevor Hoffman has saved 88 games in his age-38 and -39 years (though none in games 161-63 of 2007), and Todd Jones has saved, albeit unsteadily, 75 in that time.
Negatively, Jones has had ERA+ marks of 116 and 107, which isn't bad but pales to Rivera's career 194 and '07 mark of 142.
Also, Jose Mesa earned 70 saves from age 38-39. But he did so with NL ERAs of 3.25 and 4.76, and has only saved two games since as a middle reliever.
For Rivera, the negative is that he's appeared in 787 games already, but add in the 117.1 postseason innings, and he's got an extra year and a half on his arm.
So, can Rivera have three great years? Yes, not least because ERA doesn't matter as much for relievers. But it's no sure bet, and it'll require Rivera making history yet again.
Labels: Yankees
