Afternoon Baseball

His mouth is getting pretty tiring, too, but he's never been a free agent, so he's obviously enjoying it a bit too much.
As for giving Mo a fourth year, besides the obvious concern -- he'll be 41 in that fourth year -- he showed dangerous decline (or temporary slippage) this year in the areas that were once signs of his unique dominance.

In 2007, Rivera posted a 3.15 ERA. Now, that's not so bad, and it's almost unfair to compare with his 2003-06 run of sub-1.90 ERAs.
But look at the splits. Rivera struggled (relatively) in 2007 without off-days
No rest: 12 games, 13.1 IP, 3.38 ERA, 18 baserunners
1 day rest: 21 games, 23.1 IP, 3.47 ERA, 34 baserunners (including 4 HBP!)
2 days rest: 11 games, 11.2 IP, 0.77 ERA, 11 baserunners

Maybe it's how Torre used him. He was pitching more innings per appearance on short rest versus a comfortable two days. And Rivera struggled most with three days rest (14 games, 13.2 IP, 5.27 ERA, 16 baserunners), which didn't help the bottom line.

Has Mo always been more reliable on two days rest?
Let's look.
2006:
0 days: 16 games, 16.2 IP, 1.62 ERA, 17 baserunners
1 day: 20 games, 26 IP(!), 0.69 ERA, 24 baserunners
2 days: 14 games, 18 IP, 2.00 ERA, 17 baserunners
3 days: 6 games, 6.1 IP, 4.26 ERA, 8 baserunners

2005:
0 days: 23 games, 24.1 IP, 1.11 ERA, 29 baserunners
1 day: 18 games, 20.2 IP, 1.74 ERA, 19 baserunners
2 days: 10 games, 10.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 4 baserunners
3 days: 13 games, 16 IP, 2.25 ERA, 16 baserunners

In both years, Rivera was at his worst on three days rest, but there wasn't a tremendous difference between other common situations. He was dominant always. If he's lost that dominance on short rest, then he can still be a good closer, but it's tough to bet against further decline over four years.

But 2005 and 2006 were some of the best years ever by a closer! He nearly won the '05 Cy Young!

OK, fair enough. We'll look at Trevor Hoffman, his relative peer in age and saves, and Mo's worst season before 2007, which was 2000.

Hoffman in 2007 (age 39)
0 days: 21 G, 20.1 IP, 2.66 ERA, 22 MoB
1 day: 14 G, 12 IP, 8.25 ERA, 25 MoB
2 days: 7 G, 6.2 IP, 1.35 ERA, 5 MoB
3+ days: 19 G, 18.1 IP, 0.49 ERA, 10 MoB

Hoffman in 2006 (age 38)
0 days: 20 G, 20 IP, 2.25 ERA, 21 MoB
1 day: 15 G, 14 IP, 1.29 ERA, 13 MoB
2 days: 7 G, 7 IP, 3.86 ERA, 8 MoB
3 days: 13 G, 12.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 9 MoB
4+days: 10 G, 9.2 IP, 4.66 ERA, 11 MoB

Rivera in 2000 (2.85 ERA)
0 days: 20 games, 21.1 IP, 2.53 ERA, 22 baserunners
1 day: 17 games, 20.2 IP, 2.61 ERA, 19 baserunners
2 days: 10 games, 10.1 IP, 3.48 ERA, 18 baserunners
3 days: 8 games, 9.2 IP, 2.79 ERA, 9 baserunners
6+ days: 6 games, 7 IP, 6.43 ERA, 10 baserunners

Rivera just doesn't have a track record of struggles on no rest or one day of rest. That's why 2007 is so troubling. And while Hoffman doesn't have a real pattern from the past two years, he pitches fewer innings and gets preferential rest compared with Rivera.
That's not going to be possible with the Yankees, unless they slip to a mid-80s win level a la the Padres. That may be good enough out there, but it won't work in the American League.

Labels: Baseball, Yankees