And they're right.
Maybe Boras didn't have a grand conspiracy planned with everything that's happened with Alex Rodriguez this off-season, but he's not damaged beyond repair.
And, you can argue the Yankees caved in.
I'll acknowledge, as Jerry Crasnick seems to say and Mike said in conversation yesterday, there are no losers.
The Yankees win because A-Rod signed a deal they wanted to offer, and Boras gets egg on his face, even if he'll have $14 million of napkins to wipe it off with (his expected commission).
A-Rod wins in again getting a record-setting contract, one that'll take him beyond his most-productive-if-substance-free years.
Boras still gets a huge contract and can spin that the Yankees, not him or his client, blinked.
And nobody should be bitching about the Yankees' contracts. Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera have been at the top of their respective pay scales for years. Posada was the best offensive catcher in baseball last year (and one of the top six or seven AL hitters), and probably for the decade. Rivera, in a down year, was still a top-tier closer with more endurance than the young guys (outside of maybe the overworked Huston Street).
A-Rod? He deserves the money, if one guy's to get it. Fairly young, far and away the best offensive player. Forget the counting stats -- you can have big numbers aided by a big offensive era. A truly dominant player leads his league in categories regardless of numbers. A-Rod has done that as well as anyone in the post-1992 home-run/steroid era: HR (five times), RBI (2), AVG (1), R (5), SLG (3), OPS (2).
OK. Enough negativity.
Let's not buy the lie that Alex Rodriguez is truly unhappy with Scott Boras. While Wallace Matthews is never my muse, he's right to see through this.
Baseball teams cannot bar a player from being represented by a particular agent (or other representative). Rodriguez does not have to fire Boras, or even be truly unhappy. He merely must, for appearances, act as if he's been misrepresented to draw the Yankees back into negotiations from their tough, unfortunate, but correct stance of "opt-out, you're out."
Now, maybe his wife, Cynthia, is pulling a Laura Pettitte and threatening his wealth should A-Rod skip town. Even then, it's tough to trust A-Rod, because a gift of some jewelry (a la Kobe Bryant after his Colorado incident) could change his wife's mind overnight.
And hey, it could simply be a personality disagreement. Andruw Jones and Boras survived a similar situation (though one involving $200 million less). But the Yankees can't take that chance.
The Yankees have time on their side. Make A-Rod sweat. Call his bluff; see if he'll really can Boras or cave even further on his money demands. Who else is out there? No one, apparently. It's not collusion, where owners are calling each other and saying, "Let's freeze A-Rod out." But it's clear Boras-style collusion -- that of blatantly lying about other team's offers -- isn't working. That is, unless the Yankees fumble their next move.
It's a matter of starving the beast. It's not for the weak-willed or compassionate. Lord knows that's not what Scott Boras or Alex Rodriguez are. A bit of the flip side may be exactly the medicine needed to bring the slugger back to the Bronx -- with lighter pockets.
Records for the last year Alex Rodriguez played for a team and the following season:
2000 Seattle: 91-71, wild card, lost ALCS
2001 Seattle: 116-46, division title, lost ALCS
2003 Texas: 71-91
2004 Texas: 89-73
2007 Yankees: 94-68
2008 Yankees: ?
And, the team's records the year before getting A-Rod and the first year with him:
1994 Seattle: 49-63
1995 Seattle (142 A-Rod at-bats): 79-66, wild card, lost ALCS
1996 Seattle (first full year): 85-76
2000 Texas: 71-91
2001 Texas: 73-89
2003 Yankees: 101-61
2004 Yankees: 101-61
I think this trend of improvement post-A-Rod and little change by adding him will not be altered by much. Right now, the Yankees are a mess, but unless they re-sign nobody, they'll find a way to 90+ wins. The leading contenders for A-Rod, as rumored, already had a lot of wins (Mets, Angels, Cubs) or have lots of other potential problems (Dodgers, Giants). What does it mean? I have no idea, but it's fodder for the "to hell with A-Rod" crowd.
Apparently, that's all of us who repeatedly backed Alex Rodriguez despite his postseason (and all of 2006) clutch woes, his crippling personality disorders and insecurity, problems with teammates and his apparent inability to handle the media before say, June 2007.
NoMaas, which I feel was overzealous in its joy at Joe Torre's dismissal, gets it exactly right here:
We don't blame Arod for opting out. After all, the Yankees traded for him knowing that he had this clause in his contract. Plus, he was treated like crap by the fans and media here. Maybe he just had enough.
However, we blame Arod for not being man enough to even have a conversation with the Yankees, and specifically Brian Cashman. Cashman was one of the few who publicly defended Rodriguez, and denied the countless trade demands made by writers and fans. After telling us repeatedly during the season that he wanted to stay in New York, Alex did not even honor the Yankees' request of a face-to-face meeting. He reportedly broke up with the Yankees in a voicemail left by Scott Boras. No dialogue. No conversation. Can't we be a little more professional than that? Is that how you really conduct business, Alex?
...
What is certain though is that sincerity and professionalism are two qualities which Alex Rodriguez clearly lacks.
Great athletes don't necessarily need sincerity and professionalism in all aspects. But all the greats have been sincere in their desire to win and professional in the way they went about their business. Even a moron like Manny Ramirez is clearly sincere in his love of baseball and professional in his approach to hitting.
No one doubts A-Rod's professional approach to hitting, but it's all superseded -- his play, his love for the game, his desires to win and to be loved -- to a desire, a sincere one, to be the best-paid, dominant figure in sports. To be bigger than anything else.
Are we jumping the gun? Maybe A-Rod comes back. Even if he somehow did, though, hasn't he burnt all his bridges? It would be a Yankee fan's version of Stockholm Syndrome to welcome him back with open arms.
Kudos to Scott Boras, for he's doing exactly what he needs to do, but A-Rod? Hope the money and new city compensates for being the loneliest man in sports.
Alex Rodriguez has jumped his projections quite a bit in the last few games. He's at 51 home runs now, the same amount Cecil Fielder had in his entire 1990 season and the amount Ralph Kiner and Johnny Mize had to share the 1947 home run title.
Alex is at team game #142. Roger Maris' game #142 was also Sept. 8. He went 0-for-3 after belting a homer on consecutive days. But he already had 55 home runs, and would add another Sept. 9 before going into a mini-slump, belting only four the rest of the way.
So, Alex has his work cut out for him. But there's a chance for the A.L. record, and what some may consider the true, untainted record.
Tom Glavine very well may be the last 300-game winner that anyone his age will ever witness. Here's a few offbeat stats to mark the occasion. Mike Greenberg of "Mike and Mike" openly wondered how Glavine ranked among the best-hitting pitchers. He's posted a .188/.245/.213.
Off the top of my head, I know Walter Johnson takes the cake.
In 2324 at-bats, Johnson posted 24 home runs and a .235/.274/.342 line. He also had 41 triples, a total that only 33 active players at any position have surpassed.
Other great slugging pitchers include Warren Spahn (35 home runs, .194/.234/.287), Catfish Hunter (.226/.234/.287). Greg Maddux (.173/.193/.207) and John Smoltz (.164/.232/.214) have been the best of a weaker, modern era.
But anyways, congratulations to Glavine. The 1990s Braves teams, for all the failure of only one world championship, will be known as a team with two 300-game winners and a 200+-game winner (Smoltz) that may have been the most talented.
I was in a bar Saturday night when I saw the replay of Barry Bonds' 755th home run. The accomplishment, for whatever you think, is tremendous. He's played many years, through tribulations and injuries, and endured much (although much of it brought on by himself) to reach this point. He should be best known, just as Hank Aaron should, as one of the most complete players to ever step on the field.
However, unlike the witch hunt on many great sluggers, we've evidence, if not the most conclusive. The doubts surrounding Bonds have backing in the leaked grand jury testimony of his "accidental" use of steroids, and the leaked report of his failed amphetamines test last season.
Unlike Mark McGwire, who did take andro but at least chose substance unregulated by the FDA (at the time). Granted, andro is no vitamin. But maybe you can get him for that. Rafael Palmiero, obviously, is a cheater.
But what of Sammy Sosa, of which there is no (direct) proof? Baseball, and all of us, have a lot to ponder over the next several years (or decades).
If you want to feel better about one Hall of Famer who clearly has taken everything but performance-enhancing stuff, check of this workout report.
Finally, Alex Rodriguez's is not the only Yankee hitting the ball (apologies to Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada) and that's why the Yankees are improbably 1/2 games back of the wild card. Even the division is theoretically in play at seven back. But as I've said too many times to link more than once, the wild card is what matters. And with the killer schedule upcoming, we'll see if the Yankees can prove to be anything more than opportunists for a weak schedule. I have more confidence than all year, but I'm not banking on anything.
If only he had failed to hit the tying home run in the ninth inning, the Yankees could have avoided burning the bullpen for four more innings and lose in the 13th.
Man, the guy's only clutch when you don't want him to be.
Seriously, though, the only thing hopeful is the comparison of 2007 to 1995. Now, the 1995 Yankees were 33-39 at this point. These Yanks are but 36-36. But remember, just like Ruth in 1927, the 1995 closed with a rush, going 46-26 the rest of the way.
Can this year's team do a similar thing? Perhaps against American League teams, yes. But games such as this, with the ace on the mound, are disconcerting.
Speaking of paces, Alex Rodriguez is back ahead of Roger Maris. American League record, here we come.
Yeah, that sounds like a good idea.
Home run #492 of Alex Rodriguez's career is special because of three things: 1. It ties a game they need. 2. He gets a big hand from a Yankee fan-filled ballpark, a bigger hand than he probably got all 2006 at the Stadium. And 3. He's the most-clutch player in baseball this year.
Thom Brennamen just said A-Rod has seven HR in 20 at-bats in 9th-inning situations. Not bad, right?
His approach at the plate is solid, he seems to be reacting instead of thinking, and pitchers keep giving him fat pitches. Astounding.
Maybe you don't expect him to hit these type of home runs, but if you're still surprised, you haven't been watching closely enough.
Is Alex Rodriguez chasing the least-suspicious mark of them all -- the American League home-run record of 61, set by Roger Maris in 1961.
A-Rod hit his 26th home run today in his 66th game of the season. He's on pace to break the 46-year-old club and league mark, but remains slightly behind Maris' pace -- Roger hit his 26th in his 64th game off Joe Nuxhall and had #27 in game 66.
As a note, when Alex had his career-high 57 home runs, he didn't hit #26 until more than halfway through the year.
Rodriguez, however, can catch up in the next week or so, as Maris then went until game #74 without a blast. It'll be interesting to see how, if at all, this is followed.
There's no pressure, really. The only chance for some of that is if the media, as they did with Ryan Howard, last year, takes it upon themselves to anoint a "real" record holder without authority or facts. Even then, the badgering should be nothing new to A-Rod.
EDIT (06/06/07): To fix headline typo.
Fresh off his trumping of Jonathan Papelbon and David Ortiz in a span of an inning, it's worth seeing the improvement Alex Rodriguez has shown against the Red Sox this year.
2007: 13-43, 4 HR, 3 2B, 9 RBI, 12 R, 8 BB, 9 K, .302/.412/.651
2006: 16-65, 3 HR, 3 2B, 13 RBI, 14 R, 14 BB, 18 K, .246/.375/.431
Nice improvement to see. And while the Yanks have won a series a few other times this year, only to fall flat, beating the rivals should provide forward momentum. Right???
Labels: A-Rod
The last successful Yankee team to be so terrible at this point was the 1995 Yankees. While they pulled out of their hole, as we've discussed, it seemed prudent to take a look-see at how that team stacks up to this one.
Read more...
Better yet, even though Derek Jeter had made his major league debut by then, there are no regulars on both teams. The 1995 squad was also brittle, with Bernie Williams the only player to top 130 games (albeit in a 144-game season). With that came a deeper use of the bench, although it's a stretch to say either club has a great corps of backups.
Here's the thing: It's tough to say hitting is the major problem for this club. It's a problem, but the pitching instability and inconsistency needs to be affected. But still, let's take a look.
The major flaw is that I won't have the pro-rated OPS+ for the 1995 team. I'm using Baseball Musings' Day-by-Day database for this, by the way.
Through 51 games (May 31, 2007 and June 23, 1995*), each team being 22-29:
Catcher: 1995: Mike Stanley -- 39-122, 6 HR, 8 2B, 25 RBI, 22 R, 19 BB, 38 K, .275/.367/.458
2007: Jorge Posada -- 60-168, 6 HR, 16 2B, 30 RBI, 31 R, 17 BB, 30 K, .357/.414/.560
Obviously, not even close. Stanley had a nice year, but Posada is doing absurd things like being on pace to play 150 games and hit almost 50 doubles, as well as hitting .357. A bright spot.
First base: 1995: Don Mattingly -- 35-137, 1 HR, 12 2B, 14 RBI, 15 R, 14 BB, 7 K, .255/.320/.365
2007: Doug Mientkiewicz -- 26-120, 4 HR, 7 2B, 15 RBI, 17 R, 10 BB, 15 K, .217/.286/.375
Josh Phelps -- 16-57, 2 HR, 2 2B, 9 RBI, 7 R, 4 BB, 12 K, .281/.339/.421
As bad as the Yankees have been in first base lately, or at least in backups, Mattingly's numbers outside of his 2:1 BB/K ratio are sad. He cleaned it up a bit for a .288/.341/.413 final line, but you can see why he called it quits. A pathetic push.
Second base: 1995: Pat Kelly -- 23-73, 3 HR, 2 2B, 7 RBI, 12 R, 12 BB, 24 K, .315/.414/.466
Randy Velarde -- 33-135, 3 HR, 6 2B, 14 RBI, 18 R, 10 BB, 23 K, .244/.295/.356
2007: Robinson Cano -- 51-193, 2 HR, 15 2B, 23 RBI, 21 R, 8 BB, 38 K, .264/.298/.394
Kelly, one of the most-hated Yankees I remember, somehow pulled this off before injury. He finished the year at .237/.307/.333, with one home run in his last 197 at-bats. Between the two, they have 15 more at-bats, four more home runs and 14 more walks. Cano gets the edge just because Velarde assuredly got some at-bats at other positions and Kelly was just awful. Again, a sad category.
Shortstop: 1995: Tony Fernandez -- 29-130, 1 HR, 6 2B, 11 RBI, 18 R, 15 BB, 13 K, .223/.306/.292
Derek Jeter -- 11-47, 0 HR, 3 2B, 6 RBI, 5 R, 6 BB, 11 K, .234/.280/.340
2007: Derek Jeter -- 70-204, 3 HR, 11 2B, 28 RBI, 32 R, 23 BB, 22 K, .343/.421/.461
With his mini-slump, Jeter's actually the tiniest bit behind last year, but hell, I'd take 1995 Jeter over Fernandez. Several other players got brief shots at shortstop in 1995, by the way, including Velarde and Kevin Elster.
Third base: 1995: Wade Boggs -- 45-161, 2 HR, 4 2B, 21 RBI, 20 R, 28 BB, 14 K, .280/.378/.354
2007: Alex Rodriguez -- 57-195, 19 HR, 11 2B, 45 RBI, 45 R, 25 BB, 42 K, .292/.386/.641
OK, this one isn't fair to the 1995 team, either. We'll see how A-Rod finishes the season, though. Boggs went .348/.433/.457.
Left field: 1995: Gerald Willams -- 15-57, 3 HR, 4 2B, 14 RBI, 12 R, 5 BB, 10 K, .263/.328/.561
Luis Polonia -- 35-142, 1 HR, 7 2B, 11 RBI, 25 R, 13 BB, 19 K, .246/.306/.345
2007: Hideki Matsui -- 40-142, 5 HR, 12 2B, 25 RBI, 23 R, 18 BB, 18 K, .282/.364/.472
Melky Cabrera -- 30-134, 2 HR, 3 2B, 15 RBI, 11 R, 11 BB, 15 K, .224/.284/.306
The 2007 Yankees gain another edge, although a slight one. Matsui is having a terribly quiet season, but he's little competition in the long run. Williams and Polonia didn't get any better collectively as the year went on. Cabrera, though, wouldn't even be on this team (or that one) were he not the only one with fresh legs.
Dion James and Velarde played 43 combined games out there in 1995. Melky has played 134 innings in left and 151 in center, plus 26 in right. I put him in left to have a two-player position for both years.
Center field: 1995: Bernie Williams -- 50-194, 8 HR, 10 2B, 31 RBI, 29 R, 20 BB, 34 K, .258/.330/.464
2007: Johnny Damon -- 42-159, 3 HR, 6 2B, 17 RBI, 27 R, 24 BB, 28 K, .264/.362/.371
Not as close as it looks. Bernie Williams was just becoming one of the American League's best all-around players, and Damon is just entering the decline phase of his career.
Right field: 1995: Paul O'Neill -- 42-127, 9 HR, 11 2B, 28 RBI, 24 R, 21 BB, 22 K, .331/.421/.630.
2007: Bobby Abreu -- 45-197, 2 HR, 6 2B, 22 RBI, 32 R, 24 BB, 42 K, .228/.313/.289
Abreu will be remembered, talent-wise, as a better all-around player. But no one could ever call O'Neill passive or defeated. Abreu has personified those descriptions this year. O'Neill was the team's best player in 1995 (and 1993 and 1994) and is worth two players compared with Abreu.
Desig-hated hitter: 1995: Dion James -- 19-62, 1 HR, 2 2B, 9 RBI, 5 R, 8 BB, 4 K, .306/.386/.387
Jim Leyritz -- 39-132, 4 HR, 8 2B, 21 RBI, 17 R, 20 BB, 46 K, .295/.400/.447
Danny Tartabull -- 35-145, 4 HR, 10 2B, 20 RBI, 20 R, 25 BB, 39 K, .241/.353/.393
2007: Jason Giambi -- 39-149, 7 HR, 5 2B, 23 RBI, 19 R, 25 BB, 35 K, .262/.380/.436
I say desig-hated because first it was a typo but also because it symbolizes the dreck thrown at this spot. Ruben Sierra was not with the team yet, too busy hitting a .284/.338/.517 that Yankee fans would never see. The 1995 Yanks get the edge, if only because Giambi is now hurt and the earlier team would soon be rid of Tartabull. Plus, Leyritz was actually an effective wild card that season.
What's the verdict? The current Yankees enjoy massive advantages at catcher, shortstop and third base with lopsided opposite outcomes in center field, right field and DH/extra. First and second base are relatively even in mediocrity, whereas left field is a crapshoot depending on who's playing. Both teams have a problem of highly concentrated strength. The 1995 Yankees, even before acquisitions such as Sierra and Darryl Strawberry, had many more options.
The 2007 Yankees have more firepower, but what you see is what we're going to get. What we see better start swinging a hot bat.
* the strike shortened the 1995 campaign, theoretically giving this year's team more time
The Yankees actually had cut their payroll slightly at the beginning of the year, which enables them to sign Clemens for a pro-rated $28 million now without blinking.
Of course, the Yanks still owe him money from the last contract, albeit not much. Thanks to Dave for that link, which has a fascinating and rather full salary roundup.
Worst number in that list: owing Javier Vazquez $3 million.
But now, A-Rod might have legitimate reason to want another contract worth $25 million or more per year. It's all speculation, as all of this is, but depending on how you look at it, Clemens is the highest-paid player in baseball. At almost 45 years old.
If the Yankees want to keep A-Rod, though, they will. The price tag won't matter much, except on Alex Rodriguez's psyche. The hidden benefit, I think, is that signings such as Clemens' outrageous sum will drive the bidding out of reach for anyone else, even the desperate Angels.
Alex Rodriguez is having perhaps the best month of his extraordinary career, and the Yankees are squandering the whole thing. Only my fantasy team has responded well to his heroics, but that, sadly, is a secondary concern.
There's some hope, I hope, in the return of Hideki Matsui, who had an RBI, the 14-game hitting streak of Derek Jeter, and the major-league debut of Phillip Hughes on Thursday. If Hughes bombs, he'll still be the team's second-best healthy starter (pending Chien-Ming Wang's return tomorrow).
Igawa is looking to be anything but a major-league starter. He, along with past flameouts such as Masato Yoshii, etc., should give pause to those who truly think the Japanese leagues are on even footing, through and through. They'll get there, but not yet. But that's not the real issue, of course. The real issue is that the Yankees have no dependable starters for whom Mariano Rivera can lock down a save.
NoMass.org wants Melky Cabrera to be sent down to AAA, and Was Watching says it's time to consider it. This blog loves Melky, but doesn't think that's a terrible idea. The idea of replacing him, say, with Kevin Thompson, however, seems like a lateral move.
April isn't a make-or-break month, as the Oakland A's prove almost every year. But it can show very quickly the flaws that will plague a team all season long, the fatal flaws. It's a good thing I'm on vacation, so I don't have the time to ponder the likelihood of that pessimistic latter possibility.
Yes, a terrible headline.
But Chase Wright proved to be just as mediocre as Jaret Wright, minus several million dollars and exceeding expectations rather than provoking fear. Also, this Wright doesn't constantly get batted balls smacked off of him.
This is how the Yankees have to win for now: Hit enough, hope the pitching is a shade better than terrible and overcome the defense. It's also, unfortunately, the game plan of the 1996-2007 Texas Rangers and the 2004-2006 Yankees. It'll get you only so far.
But enough doom and gloom. The happy-haps tonight? Alex Rodriguez hit another home run, and as a Yankee fan and first-place fantasy team owner, I couldn't be prouder. Now, of course, it's still early, and he's had "redemption" before, but he's playing as if he realizes all he can control is on the field. And fans, for now, are realizing that they have to accept what he is, and if they can't, it's on them. (I'm heavily backlinking myself, I know. Sorry.)
The other happy news is the most-underrated catcher of the young century, Jorge Posada, and his flying-high start (.364/.408/.568, 2 HR, 11 RBI in 12 games). Last year, he started off at .288/.395/.452 and had an excellent year. In 2005, when he had somewhat of a down year, he started .244/.330/.333, although both years saw a powerful May. In '04, April was .300/.434/.683 with a strong-average, low-power May. Not a lot to go on, but I've a hunch that this is going to be a good year for Posada.
And yet Alex Rodriguez did not say this as if it were a bad thing. What an effortless, beautiful swing. Like David Justice but with a huge man delivering.
Let's not forget, if last year was A-Rod's "bad" year, how good will a good year be?
Rest assured, someone will find fault in the next couple days, but who cares? A-Rod shouldn't.
ESPN ran their "E-Ticket" series today with the headline, "Why do we hate this guy?" in reference to A-Rod. Funny, maybe they should be asking Steve Phillips this question, since he's obviously beyond professional analysis and into personal spite at this point.
But actually, Eric Neel does a very good job with the piece, proving again that he's the one who learned the most from Ralph Wiley's Page 2 writing (as opposed to say, Skip Bayless, who learned only big words and mistaking bravado for bravery).
Neel also is good enough to ask a couple online Yankees writers (Steve Goldman, Alex Belth), who contribute their own thoughts. Goldman, in particular, exposes the bullshit that is this perverse pride of "Mantle got booed, too, and he took it."
There's a lot of legitimate criticism and examination of Alex Rodriguez to be had. Hell, I just looked at the possibility that A-Rod might be in a permanent career decline, and what that might look like. But look at who I compared him with. One of the top two first basemen ever (Foxx), the greatest natural talent ever (Mantle), the National League's greatest home-run hitter pre-1960 (Ott) and the best player of the 1990s (Griffey). Criticism such as that (and others' much more insightful words) is praise in and of itself, and has a purpose.
But little or no constructive or intelligent criticism is being done by the 50,000+ fans at the stadium, who are rapidly turning into Boston beat writers or Philadelphia fans -- the hate-for-the-sake-of-hating crowd. After all, when I agree with Michael Kay, something's seriously wrong. But doesn't this ring true:
"He's held to an impossibly high standard. I really believe they expect him to get a hit every time up. The guy gets his temperature taken every single at-bat."I've said many times that the adjustment around A-Rod is more of one we must make to accept him as he is. Neel feels the same way, saying, "It's on us, not him, from here on out."
Labels: A-Rod
This question was first raised by astute Bronx Banter writer Cliff Corcoran in the last days of 2004.
Unfortunately for him, 2005 through a monkey-wrench into the expectations that Alex Rodriguez would settle into a post-1999 Derek Jeter with better power. In fact, a real argument could be made that 2005 was his best season. I thought I had a link, but can't find it.
Anyways, one concern with Rodriguez (as it is for Andruw Jones) is that because he started so young (in the majors at 18, first full season at 20), that his "baseball age" is much older than his real age. Also, he was so good so early that he may drop off earlier, or so the theory goes. 2006, so far, is looking like a decline year, or just a slump, depending on the perspective.
To take a look at this, let's look at four of the classic all-around great hitters with legendary power who also got started at age 19 or 20. A quick disclaimer: This is not some genius statistical analysis. I'm sure many can do better, and I hope they do so.
We'll compare A-Rod with Jimmie Foxx, Mickey Mantle, Mel Ott and Ken Griffey Jr. All five led their league in home runs at least four times, all have (or will have) 500+ home runs, and the latter four fell off before they were expected to do so. They were also well-rounded. Mantle and Foxx won Triple Crowns, Ott hit over .300 lifetime and walked more than 1700 times, and Griffey was considered baseball's top all-around player for the better part of a decade. A-Rod has won each piece of the Triple Crown and has led the league 4 times in runs and runs created, and twice in slugging, on top of that.
First, we'll look at their production through their peak (between 29 and 32) in 162-game averages:
For A-Rod, we'll only look at him through age 29, or 2005, when he arguably peaked.
Alex Rodriguez (through age 29) 12 seasons, 10 full, first full year at age 20.
Seasons: 9.83. 193-630; 44 HR; 35 2B; 125 RBI; 127 R. .307/.385/.577. 6 years of OPS+ above career average of 145.
Jimmie Foxx (through age 31) 14 seasons, 12 full, first full year at age 20.
Seasons: 11.32. 196-582; 41 HR; 33 2B; 144 RBI; 131 R. .336/.444/.640. 7 years of OPS+ above career average of 163.
Mickey Mantle (through age 32) 14 seasons, 13 full, first full year at age 19.
Seasons: 11.62. 179-562; 39 HR; 25 2B; 112 RBI; 127 R. .309/.429/.582. 7 years of OPS+ above career average of 172.
Mel Ott (through age 30) 14 seasons, 12 full, first full year at age 19.
Seasons: 11.51 179-569; 32 HR; 31 2B; 120 RBI; 116 R. .315/.420/.558. 7 years of OPS+ above career average of 155.
Ken Griffey Jr. (through age 30) 12 seasons, 11 full, first full year at age 19.
Seasons: 10.37. 182-612; 40 HR; 33 2B; 122 RBI; 112 R. .296/.383/.568. 7 years of OPS+ above career average.
What does this mean? Well, A-Rod is a prolific home-run hitter, and his numbers trend well with all of the above, especially considering he's played fewer years and is younger. The years with OPS+ above career average is mostly to illustrate that, given their careers as a whole, they had "x" amount of above-average years early on. For the latter four after their "peaks," Foxx, Mantle and Griffey never had a year with a OPS+ that matched or bested their career average. Ott did so twice in six full seasons after his peak, even winning a HR title and leading the league in OPS (both in 1942). The other three never led their leagues in anything post-peak.
There are extenuating circumstances, of course. Foxx drank himself out of baseball, and alcohol certainly had its impact on Mantle (as it probably did on Eddie Mathews, the Braves third baseman who dramatically fell off after age 29, but had already made his plaque by then). Griffey has had numerous injuries, but still managed a respectable .277/.363/.532 through 2005. Ott, who had fewer problems with either malady, was also the most consistent.
His post-peak numbers:
(after age 30) 8 seasons, 6 full, last full season at 36
Seasons: 5.35. 152-544; 27 HR; 24 2B; 89 RBI; 99 R; .280/.403/.477
Plus, he managed very steller OPS+ of 137, 150, 165, 133, 171, and 150 against a career 155 average.
So, is this A-Rod's future? Nobody suggests he'll be Dale Murphy. He may well be Hank Aaron or Frank Robinson or Ted Williams.
But what if indeed he has peaked? He can still put up big numbers, as has Jason Giambi, a man who indisputably has declined, yet is the most feared AL hitter this side of Fenway Park. Gary Sheffield dropped off a good bit in 2004 and 2005, yet was a viable MVP candidate in 2004 and has proven his worth with his absence this year.
The adjustment, if this is the case, may be as much ours as it is Alex's.
Labels: A-Rod
Just was listening to Mike and the Mad Dog, sans Mad Dog, and Mike believes that the Yankees fans will cheer Alex Rodriguez tonight -- a sort of "wiping the slate clean" and "bygones be bygones" approach.
Sounds reasonable, since he's been hitting lately and most fans, hopefully, have awoken from their irrational, Steve Phillips-fueled hatred.
Wang goes for the team tonight. Liking those chances.
I'll be at the Saturday game and hopefully can get some pictures.
Labels: A-Rod
"They still haven't fixed A-Rod's psyche, but miracles may require a priest, not a baseball man."
That was in January. His current woes have always been underneath the surface, which explains why the current fan frenzy is both an overreaction (for being naive enough to think A-Rod suddenly lost it) and appropriate (because the self-doubt and subsequent overthinking, tight play may well be chronic).
I've been a supporter of Alex Rodriguez, I think, although I've surely been critical of him.
There's a couple of ways to examine his current difficulties:
1. He's still not far off pace from the typical Gary Sheffield season (as far as average, HR and RBI). But of course, he's always been better than Sheffield, which is no knock on Gary. So it's a disappointment, but not a total collapse. Things will turn around. After all, the trade was still a good move, all things considered.
2. A-Rod is a head case and will be destined to fall short of his potential like many other superstars, including Hall of Famers. His teams, sadly, will always be dragged down in the muck with him as long as he remains essentially to team success.
The second is the real concern. Notice I didn't say, "A-Rod isn't clutch, etc." People forget how Jeter made the last out in about 13 games last season. But a mental block could be a very serious issue.
Does this paragraph sound like somewhat of a descriptor of Rodriguez's current situation?
"Alex Rodriguez? The most ordinary and underwhelming superstar ever seen. His season wasn't even so disappointing because it never appeared as if he was playing anything less than what he can play. This is who he is--an unemotional player (who comes off extremely calculating in all he does--he's like Kobe without the crime...yet) who delivers only when the games don't matter (his MVP campaign was constructed entirely after June when the Rangers were comfortably in last) or when no one is on-base. I give him credit for moving to third base, but I can't believe how little awe he inspires, in person and on television.
Harsh, but from a fan viewpoint, not so much. The only thing is that this was written October 20, 2004. Again, not a new problem, so let's not act stunned. The difficulty is that a solution is not an easy fix. Hell, most of us though the 2005 MVP campaign was the fix.
I updated my thoughts slightly a year later after the first-round loss to the Angels:
Finally, either fix A-Rod's head, or accept that this is the type of star he is, only worse -- far from unemotional, he can't control his emotions when he needs to.
That guy Sweeney on WFAN who covers the Yanks said it may have to do the absence of Sheffield, because he took pressure off (in the lineup and with the press) and also because he challenged A-Rod. We've talked many times, and so have countless others, about the fact that Sheff has been the most dangerous Yankee since mid-late 1990s Bernie. His absence has a measurable impact for these reasons and more (such as that Jeter only has about 63 or 64 runs scored despite a .400+ OBP). I still wouldn't have extended his contract, though. It's a tough situation.
Anyways, A-Rod should not go anywhere. He's not a lost cause (unless you really think he's going to pull a Greg Vaughn-like complete collapse) and there's really not much the fans can do, anyway. This is up to him. The fans bear no blame, but can honestly only make things worse.
This is what they call riding out the storm. He's going to have to do it, as will the Yankees and the fans. There's little choice available. And if he's not what we expected, that's just the breaks. It's out of our hands, unfortunately.
Labels: A-Rod
NY Daily News (via Baseball Musings)
The Brushback
According to The Brushback, it's that Damon swings and A-Rod doesn't. Read that for laughs.
But on to a semi-factual source, the NY Daily News. According to Johnny Damon's brother: "I know (Alex Rodriguez), he's got a routine down to a science from what I hear. And Johnny, he just goes out and plays and doesn't care about any routine at all. I've wondered sometimes, would he be even better if he took better care of his body?"
Damon, of course, disagrees with this notion. I don't think that this serves as an example of A-Rod being too tightly wound up. That's a mental block, at the most, that he puts on himself in certain situations. His "getting up at 6 a.m. while other people are taking care of their kids," to quote the Red Sox, will keep him an elite player for the duration of his long, massive contract. Damon, on the other hand, may find his body betray him in the next 3-4 years. Hopefully, that will not happen. Even if it does, it may be an injury not related to fitness.
The elephant in the room, though, is exactly what Damon's brother means. Is Damon working out and such, but not a machine about it a la A-Rod? That might not be so bad. Or does he mean that Damon is lounging about, maybe cheating on his new wife like he did the old one (parody, but makes the point), and letting his natural metabolism take care of his health? While I don't think it's the latter, we have no way of knowing at the moment.
EDIT (06/06/07): It's a cheap shot, I know, but it seems A-Rod has taken the Damon approach to marriage.
Labels: A-Rod
Of all the ways that the Yankees would lose this year's Division Series, lack of hitting would have been listed as the least likely. Yet, that's exactly what happened.
So where is the appropriate blame? Did the Yanks even deserve to win? Did they fix the problems from last year? Where do they go from here?
Read more...
1. Who's to blame?
A-Rod, for sure, for his defense as well as his lack of hitting. Tim Keown has the best perspective on the enigma that is Playoff-Yankee A-Rod. But he's not alone. Hideki Matsui, usually a stellar playoff performer, was amazing for his ineptitude yesterday. Gary Sheffield, again, the most dangerous hitter they have, was reduced to a singles hitter again -- mediocrity being a playoff habit for him. Bernie, sadly, didn't choke -- he's just got nothing left.
It comes back to Randy Johnson, though. Stellar September aside, he never fully cast aside doubts about age affecting him or his big-game talent when not facing the Yankees.
Mike Mussina? Yeah, he sucked, but it's surprising that he was really able to pitch at all. Besides, the Moose gets out of whack easily. Just as when Torre goofed by bringing him to Japan two years ago, leaving Moose in Anaheim for close to a week with nothing to do surely didn't help. Fragile psyche? Sure. But considering he's been the one constant in playoff games in the post-championship era, last night's ineffectiveness can't be held against him.
Is Torre to blame? Surprisingly, no. He managed this series fairly well. His players failed, miserably, save for Jeter and Posada and also Giambi. And Rivera, of course.
2. Did the Yanks deserve to win?
No. Well, it's not a tragedy, at least.
Weak bullpen, a defense where oft-criticized Jeter and Posada were clearly better than anyone else, a smattering of retreads and unprovens at starter (replacing overpaid, overrated and past-their-prime starters) and too many guys offensively declining, unable to field their position, or both. The Angels, on the other hand, had lots of injuries, some underachievers offensively, but had the starting pitching, the best AL bullpen, and guys who could play defense at multiple positions. And they won without Vlad driving in a single run.
The Yanks deserved to win the AL East, but nothing else. Now, if they had won last night, would they have been undeserving? No, again. It's simply that this team didn't underachieve. They were just not that great to begin with.
3. Did the Yanks fix the problems from last year?
In my A-Rod trade reflection post and in my post-ALCS thoughts last year, the problems of the Yanks seemed to be the following:
Did the Yanks fix those problems? A. Kevin Brown got hurt most of the year, which is the best thing that could have happened. Check. B. Johnson did better than Vasquez would have done, but then again, he should have. That's a split. C. The Yanks balked at Lieber's salary, I believe. Which is absurd. Now, sure he only pitched 2 1/2 great months for the Phils. But he went 17-13. What did Jaret Wright or Carl Pavano do? D. Quantrill's knee was never left to get healthy, and he was dumped halfway through, where he went on to pitch well with San Diego. Go figure. E. The bullpen was still a mess. F. Stottlemyre actually did a good job this year. Kudos. G. Center field is still in terrible shape, although Beltran is not the player he was with Houston. Not a problem that looks like it will be solved soon. H. They only got starters under 35 because they had no choice. The important thing now is keeping those guys and hoping they still have the magic in 2006. I. Plugging in guys? Well, Cano worked out better than anyone could have hoped, but Womack was an indefensible signing, Tino was great for 2 weeks in May, Sierra never recovered from the hamstring injury, and Flaherty was nothing but a clubhouse divider over being RJ's "personal catcher."
So overall, the Yanks failed to solve many of their problems. And if last year's team wasn't good enough, then it's tough to have expected this year's team to be any better.
4. Where do they go from here?Try to retain Cashman. Don't, in any way, blame Jeter. Hope against hope that Girardi stays instead of taking a managerial job. Re-sign Matsui, Small, Chacon. Don't re-sign Tino, Ruben, or Bernie. Think about finding a Gordon replacement, just in case. Think of maybe biting the bullet and putting Bubba Crosby in center full-time, if only for a year. In other words, don't sign Damon. Don't be tempted to extend Sheffield's contract. Hope Giambi didn't have some sort of bizarre one-year post-steroids boost. Focus on the farm system. Find a backup catcher who might eventually take over. Take the chance with young, maybe crappy relievers over veteran, assuredly crappy relievers. Don't panic. Don't panic. Don't panic.
Finally, either fix A-Rod's head, or accept that this is the type of star he is, only worse -- far from unemotional, he can't control his emotions when he needs to:Alex Rodriguez? The most ordinary and underwhelming superstar ever seen. His season wasn't even so disappointing because it never appeared as if he was playing anything less than what he can play. This is who he is--an unemotional player (who comes off extremely calculating in all he does--he's like Kobe without the crime...yet) who delivers only when the games don't matter (his MVP campaign was constructed entirely after June when the Rangers were comfortably in last) or when no one is on-base. I give him credit for moving to third base, but I can't believe how little awe he inspires, in person and on television.
Labels: A-Rod
The Sports Rambler
Back in late 2003-early 2004, the Curse was still alive, Aaron Boone was cutting to the basket in a game of pickup hoops, and the Yanks were busy screwing the Sox again by acquiring Alex Rodriguez after Boston tried and failed. My roommate Dave had a huge e-mail about the deal, setting off a firestorm of commentary. He, for the historical record, reproduces the e-mail and the aftermath.
Labels: A-Rod
The psyche of Alex Rodriguez is one of the most-studied by people with absolutely no expertise in said area. With each game-winning home run or failure, the diagnosis changes.
Here's a look at a sample of what this site has had to say about A-Rod and his fragile Yankees ego:
11/15/07 -- A-Rod's machinations
10/30/07 -- Played for fools
10/29/07 -- A-Rod steals some thunder
04/07/07 -- "I knew it was going to come down to me"
04/02/07 -- A-Rod made it 10 minutes without boos
09/05/06 -- Stat-padding for A-Rod
08/09/06 -- The hatred of A-Rod is our problem, not his
08/08/06 -- Is A-Rod headed for decline?
07/25/06 -- Slump over, they say
07/24/06 -- The A-Rod conundrum
06/22/06 -- A-Rod not so clutch?
02/12/06 -- The difference between Damon and A-Rod
10/11/05 -- 2005 New York Yankees: Recap
08/15/05 -- The A-Rod deal, 20 months later
10/20/04 -- Yanks-Red Sox overview
Labels: A-Rod
