In tonight's enjoyable romp. Phil Hughes likes to test everyone's patience, don't he?
The man is a legit MVP candidate. It's just too bad his teammate is putting up the league's best numbers since Mickey Mantle roamed center field.
Twenty home runs, 85 RBI and 39 doubles may seem nice, but not great. But he's in his age 35 season and has caught 123 games while posting a .338/.424/.558 and an OPS+ approaching 160.
There's only one comparison: Carlton Fisk, who was actually damn good at 35, with 26 HR, 86 RBI and a .289/.355/.518 line. He caught 133 games.
At 35, Johnny Bench was in his final season, hitting .255/.308/.432 and catching only five games.
Mike Piazza put up decent, but not great numbers at 20/54/.266/.362/.444, catching 50 times.
Yogi Berra hit .276/.347/.446, catching 63 times.
At 35, Gary Carter was injured, playing only 50 games and eking out a .183/.241/.275 line in his last year with the Mets.
Obviously, Posada caught far fewer games before 30 than these men (and Ivan Rodriguez), so he has less wear.
Unfortunately, this puts the Yankees in a tough position this offseason. Posada is NOT this year's Mike Mussina, the veteran who shows the greatness, collects the paycheck and then falls apart. Posada has posted a 119 OPS+ or better for seven of eight years and hasn't had catastrophic injuries. However, how many years do the Yanks give a catcher who's dangerously close to uncharted territory? Given his production and hitting ability, I'd say two, not three. But for those two years, you give him any amount he wants.
Before his fly out a minute ago, he was hitting .563 over the last seven days. He's been a better second-half hitter for years, and is doing so despite the worry that the Yanks not only wanted him to catch all of their games, but perhaps some for other teams on his off days.
Just a few of his splits (by month):
PA: 83,103,113,103,95
H: 23,37,27,31,23
R: 12,19,10,16,14
2B: 5,11,7,6,7
HR: 3,3,3,3,4 (and 3 this month)
RBI: 15,15,15,15,18
BB: 8,9,13,16,12
At home: .332/.410/.529 On the road: .341/.430/.572
All year, I've been thinking his batting average, etc., has been declining, albeit very slowly. It's more of having two monster peaks -- May and July.
His All-Star break numbers: .325/.398/.503 Post-AS break: .357/.459/.636
The only, slight criticism could be that's he's been ordinary with RISP and has struggled in close and late and 2 outs, RISP spots. But with a tie game, or trailing by 1-4 runs, he's right with his season averages.
I just have to keep emphasizing how fun he's been to watch.
With this recent string of home runs, Posada is hitting .341/.418/.548 after 100 games played.
He's on pace for the following (with career bests in parentheses): 155 games (151), 540 at-bats (511), 184 hits (145), 91 runs (92), 45 doubles (40), 21 HR (30), 97 RBI (101), .341 Avg. (.287), .418 OBP (.417), .548 SLG (.527), 159 OPS+ (146).
He's essentially on a career-best track in every major category. And, he's one of the best players in the entire American League, tracking at 4th in batting, 4th in on-base, 7th in slugging and 5th in OPS and 4th in OPS+.
While Alex Rodriguez outshines him, we're talking about a legitimate MVP candidate, one who plays a more-difficult position and who hasn't worn down despite catching 767 of 952 innings. Always a good second-half hitter, the workload hasn't affected his bat, as one might reasonably expect: .411/.515/.679 since the break, and .360/.466/.558 for July.
As I've said to death here, it's a magical time whenever he's playing, even if the team is not always magical behind him.
EDIT (06/19/07): A much-better statistical analysis, I think, confirms some of what I say below.
Even as Jorge starts to slip a bit with the batting average (the low-.340s, what a bum), he's still producing, hitting a home run as I type this sentence.
He's a multiple All-Star, a near-MVP in 2003 and a much-improved defender. Where does he rank among catchers?
Well, the first comparison would be among the Yankees, who boast Bill Dickey, Yogi Berra, and Thurman Munson (not to mention Elston Howard and Mike Stanley, and really not mentioning Bob Geren). With a nod to Munson as the obvious choice for best defensive catcher, we can at least look at the offense.
Yogi had three MVPs, was a 15-time All-Star, led the Yankees in RBIs seven straight years (five of those for the world champs that year), and his final numbers are intimidating: .285/.348/.482, 358 HR, 1430 RBI, only 414 K in 7555 at-bats. There's really no downside with him.
Bill Dickey bridges Yogi and Babe Ruth, playing from 1928-46. He was an All-Star 11 times, and his final line is none too shabby: .313/.382/.486, with 289 K in 6300 at-bats, 202 HR and 1209 RBI. He also had 72 triples, surely a product of a different era.
Thurman Munson is probably underrated today considering all the attention focused on his untimely death. He lacked a bit in the power, but still had a fine .292/.346/.410 with 113 HR and 701 RBI in 5344 at-bats. He struck out more than the former two, but still, only 571 K. He also was the captain, the 1976 MVP and a seven-time All-Star. With his early death, we never saw what a decline might look like for him, but Dickey and Berra were productive into their mid- to late-30s, albeit in more-limited action.
That brings us to Posada. He's had but 4527 at-bats, and has struck out a ton (1,082), but has gotten on base more than most: .274/.377/.476, with 206 homers and 812 RBIs before tonight. He's been an All-Star only four times, but has four Silver Sluggers.
It's a tough battle for Jorge. He's up against two Hall of Famers, Berra being one of the best players at any position in his era, and one of the best non-HOF members in Munson. But the way his career is going, it's tough to argue that he's not been a more-productive hitter than Munson, if not as clutch or bearing any resemblance in the field. His career OPS+ of 123 is comparable to Dickey (127) and Berra (125) and better than Munson (116).
Posada is likely to play more than 140 games and catch more than 130 for the third straight year after age 32. Munson, of course, was not alive, but Dickey and Berra never accomplished that, although both started much younger in the bigs.
What we're seeing, in essence, is the third-best catcher of his era (behind Ivan Rodriguez and Mike Piazza) and someone who belongs in conversations with, if clearly a step below, three Yankees who are among the best the position has ever seen.
At age 35, almost 36, we're watching a special player's best year. How great is that?
